Showing posts with label INVESTING TIPS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INVESTING TIPS. Show all posts

Monday, February 15, 2010

Investors Hell

An investors hell is one where the market is extremely volatile and choppy. Many are predicting this type of market in the next 3-6 months as we have a mixed bag of economic news. Here's how one advisor says to handle it.
1. First, Do not overtrade.
2. When you trade for speculative purposes over the next six months, buy on weakness and sell on strength.
3. Don't let emotions or the news get to you. Don't be a CNBC junkie. Never invest based on the news.
4. Keep the long term in perspective for your core investment positions.

5. (this one is mine) Control your losses. Make sure you have a strategy to protect yourself against downside markets!.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Protection without using Annuities

Most brokerages lost over 30% and most in the 40%-50% range since the decline started in 2007. But clients who used the "Sentry" strategy, have already recouped their much smaller declines and are well ahead of where their investments started in 2008. Annuities can offer no loss strategies, but limit some of your upside, whereas this Sentry strategy limits your down side and keeps you fully in the game! What I like about this Sentry strategy is that it can fulfill my investing philosophy of Protect, Grow and Defend and meet the needs of those clients where annuities are not a good fit.

Now nobody knows what's going to happen..... but I believe that 2008 will happen again. Defend yourself!

Friday, October 16, 2009

Bond Investing

Bill Gross, King Of The Bond World, Tells Us To "Avoid Bonds" Why would he tell us to avoid the very investment he specializes in?

Over the weekend, I saw in the newspaper that 90% of new money going into mutual funds this year has gone into bond funds vs. stock funds. Investors are showing that they are willing to take some risk, but they aren't quite ready to go back into the markets.

But not so fast, says Bill Gross. (For those of you not familiar with Bill Gross, he is the managing director and chief investment officer of PIMCO funds. He made his mark with PIMCO's Total Return Bond Fund, now one of America's largest mutual funds.)

In an article published in Investment News (http://tinyurl.com/yakyzl9), Mr. Gross says that

"You want to look for stability of income and growth. That probably doesn't mean bonds."

He's basically telling us that bonds no longer offer a reasonable return for the risk taken, and he's been reported in other publications on the difficulty of making money in bonds in a rising interest rate environment that is likely coming before long.

But this is very interesting that he is telling us to avoid that which made his career, the bond market. I don't know about you, but this sounds like advice that we should listen closely to.

By the way, if you follow market history closely, you will find that Americans are really good at putting money in the wrong place when they do so en masse. If 90% of the new money is going to bonds, that could be a very good signal for stocks in the near term.

You couldn't ask for a much more bullish sign, at least, historically speaking. The only problem with history and the markets is that just when you think you've got it all figured out, the markets have a tendency to turn around and slap you around

Friday, September 4, 2009

The Bottom Line Quotes

"What percent of your assets do you want to put at risk?"

"No one can stand volatility when they are experiencing it"

"Plan for the worst; hope for the best." (one of my favorite sayings)

"A guaranteed income for life is better than a pile of money."

"Hope that markets go up should not be the basis one one's business strategy."

"You cannot be over-defensive if your objective is wealth preservation."

"buy and hold is flawed from the start--flexibility is key."

These quotes are from Lessons Advisors Learned from the Crash of 2008 (from Horsemouth)

Thursday, July 2, 2009

A 10 Year Prediction on the Market

Which Way Are Markets Heading Over The Next 10 Years?

Up, Down, or Sideways? This is the big question for all investors. I want to make a prediction about the market that you can depend on to be true! Over the next 10 years, markets will do one of three things: 1. Go up 2. Go down or 3. Go sideways. Remember you heard it here first!

But I do have a point.....The vast majority of investment planning out there requires the market to trend upwards to be effective. If you are telling your clients to "stay the course", you are making the assumption that markets will go up over time. But what if you are wrong?

One investment group I receive information from is predicting a big big down in the market in 2010. We thought 2008 was bad…wait for this one…..

What if we are facing either a flat trending market, or even worse, a downward trending market. Harry Dent, in his new book, "The Great Depression Ahead", is forecasting downward trending markets similar to the Great Depression of the 1930's.

Even if he's a bit overboard, you are facing a pretty tough argument for a bull market environment. The combination of out of control Government spending along with increased taxation coming soon leads to a sideways trending environment at best.

So how are you going to consistently make money in either a downward or sideways environment?

Here's the key... Protect Principal--Take advantage of market swings both good and bad.
How do you do that? You need to protect the bulk of your principal using guaranteed accounts, like CD's, Government Bonds, and Fixed Annuities. Then, with your principal protected, you can use a portion of your money to take advantage of market swings, both good and bad.

It's not really that hard, but it is certainly different from what we are used to with traditional asset allocation modeling.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Treasury Bonds...Time to Buy?

10-Year Treasury Bond Rates Closed Friday, June 11, At 3.788%.

Remember the good old days when you could buy a CD paying 12%? Of course, inflation was running at higher rates than that, but boy oh boy, didn't it feel great to know that your money was safe and earning a guaranteed double digit return? Only a few years ago, 5% CDs were still common. And a couple of years before that, you could actually find 7% CDs. But those days are gone. Today, it's work just to find a CD paying you 2%, and as a result, many retirees are looking under every stone to find better interest on their money. But at the same time, you want to be safe, like a CD.

Of course, many times, this is where the typical retiree gets into trouble. It's called "chasing yield". You have to be very careful reaching for a higher return, as the risk to your principal grows along with the yield of any investment you consider.

If you don't want to risk your principal, then you only have three places you can look for options. Those three places are: Banks, Government, and Insurance Companies. Banks primarily offer savings accounts and CDs. The Government offers Treasury Bonds, Savings Bonds, and Inflation Bonds. And Insurance Companies offer Fixed Annuities.

Any other investment comes along with some type of risk to your principal. It's as simple as that.

In recent news, 10-Year Treasury Bonds are nearing 4% return. Given the difference between that and CDs, is it time to look at investing in Government Bonds?

I don't believe so.

Why not? I can think of three really good reasons.

Inflation is coming, and when it does, interest rates will rise. Do you want to lock yourself into 4% rates for the next 10 years if we could be looking at 6% or higher rates available in the near future?
If interest rates do rise, the value of your 4% bonds will fall. Bond values move in the opposite direction as interest rates. You'll be stuck with those 4% bonds until maturity, or you will have to sell them at a discount.
Losing Money Safely. It's highly likely that inflation rates will be rising, which means that while you are earning 4%, the cost of goods and services will be going up each year 6% or 7%. You will be guaranteed to be earning less than inflation. This is never a good place to put yourself!

What should you do?

I would encourage you to take a look at Fixed Indexed Annuities. They guarantee your principal, but give you the opportunity to earn better-than-inflation rates of return. Like anything else, they do have disadvantages, but if you are looking for better rates, they offer the best opportunity in today's marketplace.

The Three-Legged Retirement Stool

The Three-Legged Retirement Stool Is Getting Pretty Shaky... All three legs are crumbling...

Traditionally, our retirement income came from three sources, the proverbial three legs of the stool. They were: (1) Social Security Income (2) Company Pension (3) Personal Savings
But what's happening to each of these legs? Nothing good, I'm afraid.

It's recently been reported that Social Security is now scheduled to go broke (pay out more than it takes in) in 2017. That's just 8 years away! When Social Security started, there was 40 workers for every retiree. Now that number is just 2 or 3. This math isn't adding up.

Meanwhile, company pensions are in big trouble. Most companies don't even offer a pension anymore. But those that do are, for the most part, severely underfunded.

The last leg is personal savings. The good news is that the rate of savings is increasing. Of course, it is coming from a negative number recently, so it can't really go any direction but up.

But what's happened to your retirement account statements lately? And your friends'? It isn't a pretty picture out there, is it?

The bottom line is this. Retirement is changing. We have to rely on ourselves more and more. It's a trend that is not likely to end anytime soon.

Monday, June 8, 2009

New Challenges

This quote is from Andy Smith, a long time friend and advisor to Providence Consulting Group.

"We face amazing challenges and opportunities when helping people deal with their financial futures! The old rules do not apply and will not apply again. In October of 2007 we set a new course. Our industry has new responsibilities. We must develop new strategies to deal with changing realities. We must ask questions that have never been asked. We must discover answers for those questions and inspire people to take actions that are different than anything they have been taught in the past." Andy Smith in Forbes Magazine June 2009

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Making Up Losses with Insurance Co. Guarantees!

Over the past year and a half retirees have lost a tremendous percentage of their net worth. These losses often have a significant impact on their quality of life.

Today I'm going to share with you a way that I assist my clients in making up their losses in the market using insurance company guarantees.

Combine Index Annuities with Growth Accounts

Imagine I am talking to a client with a $500,000 portfolio. They have $300,000 in stocks and mutual funds and $200,000 in fixed income or CD's. Given their current situation, if the market goes up (which is what they are hoping for), only $300,000 in stocks will participate. If the market goes down, only $200,000 is protected.

Compare that to an indexed annuity. If the market goes up, depending on the crediting strategy, up to 100% of the account participates. If the market goes down, 100% is protected. One could argue that utilizing an indexed annuity 100% is a better solution for this client. However, I don't like to have my clients putting 100% of their money in one place.

Now, what if we put a portion in an indexed annuity and the rest in a growth account. It might look like this: $400,000 in the indexed annuity and $100,000 in a growth account. You would then have $400,000 protected vs. $200,000. You would then have all $500,000 participating if the market grows vs. $300,000 now.

Is it perfect? Probably Not. But remember, imperfect action is better than no action at all!

Creative Tax Savings Life Insurance Example

My client had 1.4 million in IRA money. Based upon his age, the general life expectancy of his family, present income needs, future income needs, and insurability, I proposed taking 500K of IRA money and producing a lifetime income of $3,900 a month. Taxes would of course be paid upon this income stream. With after tax money, we purchase a guranteed 1.2 Million life insurance policy with a LTC rider. When the client passes away, the IRA goes away (no more income or taxes BUT his beneficiary will receive at least 1.2 Million TAX FREE.

Compare this to taking the 500K and letting it grow, then client dies, and the heirs pay income taxes based upon their new income tax bracket.

Variations off this example could create tax savings and Long Term Care options for you.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Creative Investing Using Life Insurance # 1

When I speak to groups I will ask this question, "raise your hand if you want to buy life insurance?" Everyone snickers, and no one raises their hand. Nobody wants to buy life insurance. But using life insurance strategies can be a beautiful thing.

If my client's account is for the benefit of the spouse and or the children, one possibility I look at is spinning off a certain percentage each year and re-directing that percentage (after tax) to a guaranteed death benefit life insurance policy?

With the cheap insurance rates we have today, I can help my clients enjoy substantial leverage, all on a guaranteed basis. It's very common that you can use a 5% distribution stream from the portfolio and more than double the overall after-tax net when using life insurance.

In other words, a client with $500,000 in an IRA may end up providing well over 1 Million to the spouse TAX Free using this concept and variations off of it.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Bond Investing

SHOULD YOU EVEN BOTHER OWNING GOVERNMENT BONDS?

Jeremy Siegel (along with other academics) Says NO!

1. Understanding the relationship between Bond Values and Interest Rates

Picture a teeter-totter. On one side, you have bond values. On the other side, you have interest rates. When interest rates rise, bond values fall. And when interest rates fall, bond values rise. This is the basic relationship between bond values and interest rates. They move "inversely" meaning that they move in opposite directions. Interest rates drive bond values.

2. A little History....Now, let's think back 30 years or so. what were interest rates int he late 1970's/early 80's? They were very high. In fact they peaked over 15% for a 10 year government bond in 1981. What are interest rates today for that same bond...just over 3%.

The last 30 years have represented the garden of Eden for the bond market. You had 30 years of decreasing interest rates.

3. What will happen (not what might)

Interest rates have bottomed out, they are as low as they can go(the Fed Fund rate is almost 0%). What does this mean for bonds? It means that interest rates can only increase or stay the same. The best case scenario (for bond values) is that interest rates stay the same. If so, you will collect just over 3%.

But what happens if interest rates start rising? They will when inflation starts to show its ugly head or no one shows up to buy Treasuries. That happened last week. What happens? That's right--the opposite side of the teeter-totter will go down...the value of current bond prices. It's won't be pretty!

A Brave New World of Investing

On October 3, 2008, I stated in my personal blog that the recession was going to long and deep. I see nothing to change that assessment. Let me give you 5 Signs that we are still in deep trouble and then some TIPS.

Signs that we are still in trouble.

1. STILL LOSING JOBS. Last month we still lost 539K jobs....the gov offset some of the losses by adding 66K jobs at an average of $75K per year. Without gov jobs, we would have still been over 600K lost jobs. How come the gov doesn't have to sacrifice?

2. U.S. HOUSING STARTS are down 77.6% compared to the boom of the mid 2000's.

3. AUTO SALES DOWN 44% from peak of Feb 2007.

4. CONSUMER CREDIT DECLINE. Now I believe this is a good thing. Credit card companies are the new loan sharks of our time. The Bible says, "the borrower is always a slave to the lender". But when your economy is 70% consumer spending, then less credit spending does not bode well for the economy. The last 2 quarters have been the biggest collapse in consumer credit ever! The good news is that consumers are saving at a rate of 4%. (Today that savings rate is up over 5%.)

5. THE BANKS AREN'T FIXED. They are still holding on to their cash trying to build cash as they await the next round of losses. Lending that drives the economy is affected.

INVESTING TIPS:

1. The current market rally is going to be short lived. This is a classic Bear market rally. You need to be a trader right now, not a long term investor.

2. Beware of INFLATION..... many are predicting this is not going to be a problem, but I can't see how it won't be a problem. With coming inflation and the current devaluation of the dollar...do need to be ready with a plan? Do you have a plan?

3. An investor can find a lot of ways in this economic climate to make money. No, it's not gold. Gold can be a play....but I describe it as "fool's gold" because people are promoting it by using fear. The best strategy is one that has guaranteed no loss positions, inflation hedged positions, and contrarian trading positions and a willingness to move in and out of the market!